Karl Rove’s departure from the White House, has stirred much analysis and debate, and almost universal joy among liberals and conservatives. Both Democrats and Republicans hold him responsible for political defeats. What is missing from most of the talk is the central role Karl Rove played in the Iraq War fiasco. In fact, without Karl Rove’s participation, the Iraq War may never have occurred. One of the motivations to attack Iraq was domestic U.S. politics. Specifically, the 2002 mid-term Congressional elections.
This is not a secret, the decision to attack Iraq in order to win the 2002 mid-term elections, is clearly outlined in a September 2002 Time Magazine article titled “General Karl Rove, reporting for duty”. The sequence of events leading up to the Iraq War, are not a mystery either, however Karl Rove’s Machiavellian political calculus gave it the green light.
The Neo-Cons, the American wing of the Israeli Likud Party, had long been advocating a war against Iraq. Their policy of creating instablility within the middle-east to enhance Israel’s security is well known. Their attempts to promote a U.S. invasion of Iraq can be seen publicly, a week before Bush takes power, in a January 2000 Wolfowitz and Perle Frontline PBS documentary.
After Bush’s selection in 2000, the Neo-Cons found homes in both Vice-President Dick Cheney office, and Donald Rumsfeld’s Defense Dept., and continued to push war against Iraq – but nobody was buying. Even after the 911 attacks, the Neo-Con agenda of linking Saddam Hussein to Al-Qaeda, was rejected by the White House.
The 2001 war in Afghanistan was, with the exception of Bin Laden’s escape, a tremendous success. The Taliban and their Al-Qaeda allies were quickly and easily defeated, Osama Bin Laden was hiding in a cave, and the United States was victorious.
However, on the domestic political front, things weren’t going so well. The country was still divided over the Gore v. Bush election, the economy hadn’t recovered from the dot-com bust and appeared to be headed for recession, and after Sen. Jeffords defection in the Senate it looked like the Democrats would capture the House of Representatives as well.
The war in Afghanistan provided a political boost to the President, but because victory had been so rapid and complete, the positive political effects quickly diminished. Post 911 phony terror alerts, at first very effective at silencing domestic opposition, with over use began to lose their intimidation factor. In the winter and spring of 2002 things weren’t looking good for the Republicans and President Bush.
In April of 2002, the U.S. backed a coup attempt against Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, after Chavez tried to take over the Venezuelan state oil company. The coup attempt failed and Dick Cheney and Big Oil had been defeated.
The Neo-Cons never gave up on their desire to invade Iraq, their people were in place within the administration, and they re-pitched their plan.
Oil had been trading at $20 per barrel, Haliburton was under investigation for it’s accounting practices, and was fighting for it’s corporate life in an asbestos lawsuit. It wasn’t very hard for the Neo-Cons to convince Dick Cheney to support the Iraq War plan. After having lost Venezuela’s oil, the thought of being able to capture Iraq’s oil, was too sweet a deal.
Donald Rumsfeld, a man of tremendous ego, saw how an Iraq War would increase his power and prestige within the administration. With his second in command, Wolfowitz whispering into his ear, he saw how he could crush his nemesis Colin Powell.
Colin Powell in the State Dept., the top generals in the military, and the President were the only ones remaining to get on board.
In the spring of 2002, it was not hard to convince Karl Rove ergo the President, that war against Iraq would be a good political idea.
In a time of war, the country unites, and the popularity of the president rises. Wars are a political act as much as they are a military one. And this war had many political upsides, with few political downsides, at least seemingly. Approaching the 2002 mid-term elections, with the Democrats poised to take over both houses of Congress, Karl Rove got on board the War Wagon.
Only Colin Powell remained as an opponent to invasion, and with the majority of the administration in favor, he was easily isolated.
Although large numbers of Americans opposed attacking Iraq, Congressional support was guaranteed, this was a war Israel wanted. When it comes to U.S. mid-east policy, what Israel wants Israel usually gets, and almost no member of Congress, either Democrat or Republican had the courage to oppose Israeli whishes.
The Democrats were silenced, Karl Rove was left free to frame the Attack, any member of congress who expressed dissent was labled soft on terror. The 2002 mid-term elections switched from a debate over failing domestic policies, to a debate on fighting terror, the Democrats lost both houses of Congress in the November elections.
Karl Rove would use the Iraq War once more, to silence the Democrats in 2004, and win the presidential election. Having supported the invasion, the Democrats avoided pursuing the failing Iraq War as a political strategy, even though large numbers of Americans increasingly opposed the war. The Democrats remained silent, as this time Karl Rove switched the debate from a failing foreign policy, to the threat of gay marriage at home.
Of course, as we know now, the Iraq War finally caught up to Karl Rove in the 2006 mid-term elections. The Iraq War had turned into a disaster, and even though Democrats remained silent or called for half measures, large numbers of Americans turned out and gave both houses of Congress to the Democrats in any case.
Karl Rove was not an Iraq War ideologue or proponent. Like his boss he didn’t know the difference between a Sunni or a Shiite, was unaware of regional politics, or carefully considered the full range of consequences.
He saw the Iraq War as a tool to win elections, and it proved to be a successful strategy in two elections, however it cost him the last election.
In the spring of 2002, a debate raged in the White House over the decision to invade Iraq, Karl Rove saw the political advantage of going to war. He was central to pushing and promoting the war to gain domestic political victory. The consequences would be someone else’s problem, Dick and Don would take care of the details, and Bush would reign supreme.
In April of this year, Karl Rove stated “I wish the war were over. I wish the war never existed.” Karl Rove was central to starting something he couldn’t stop. Ultimately it cost him his job.