Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Small Business Plans Made Easy

Monday, November 26th, 2007

Get the MOST out of your Small Business
by: Ramsay Mameesh

Every year Fortune 500 Companies, and many other large corporations, spend millions upon millions of dollars on business consulting. Receiving consulting assistance in every facet of their business; management, human resources, marketing, operations etc. A few large firms dominate the industry, employing the majority, of the 1 million people who work in the consulting industry.

Fortunately, and unfortunately, most small businesses can’t afford high-priced consulting services. Fortunate, because in many cases, the end product of the expensive consulting service is worthless. Unfortunate, because many small business owners, could benefit from quality business consulting.

Why does your business exist? What do you want to achieve with your business? What are your business goals? Do you have any idea how to accomplish them? Do you have a business plan?

A small business is a miniature version of a corporation.  The difference between the two is mainly the absence, of  layers of managers, between the C.E.O and the janitor. In many small businesses, the C.E.O is the head of human resources, marketing, sales, and performs the janitorial services as well.

In a large corporation, the C.E.O has the ability to hire qualified managers, to lead each of the different areas of the business. And yet, corporations with skilled managers, still pay large sums to consulting firms for business help. In small businesses, the C.E.O. performs several managerial roles, and usually lacks the money to obtain consulting help. Life is not fair for the small business owner.

However, there is a business planning concept that is simple, easy to understand, that can be applied to any part of your small business, at any stage. It will clarify the business decision making process, creating a focused plan, leading to better results.

It is called MOST. Mission - Objective - Strategy - Tactics. It is a comprehensive approach to business planning, that can be used in corporations or small businesses, and that levels the playing field for everyone. And best of all - it’s free! No need for high-priced consulting services, you’re learning about it right now, and you can use it right away.

MOST can be used before you start your small business, to create your small business plan, it can be applied to any area of your small business, even to individual campaigns within your small business.

The best way to explain MOST, is of course, through an example. Let’s use MOST to increase customer satisfaction.

  • Mission - Increase customer satisfaction.
  • Objective - Raise percentage of “Highly Satisfied”, responses  from 30% to 50%, in the next quarterly customer satisfaction survey.
  • Strategy - Incentivize Employees.
  • Tactic - Offer employees 10% salary bonus if objective is met.

With MOST, you begin with the Mission and end with the Tactic. The Mission determines the Objective, which determines the Strategy, which determines the Tactic. It is a systematic approach to business planning.

There is always only one Mission, however, there can be several Objectives, Strategies, and Tactics, stemming from the Mission. For instance let’s expand the business.

  • Mission - Expand the Business
  • Objective - Increase online sales by 20%
    Open 2 new retail stores
  • Strategy - Use online advertising
    Identify high net worth neighborhoods in Northern California
  • Tactics - Use Google PPC
    Conduct Census Bureau Research

MOST produces comprehensive, focused, quantifiable, business plans. MOST speeds up the decision making process, concentrates the thinking process, and can be applied to any process within your business.

Using MOST, will get you the most, out of your small business.

Ramsay Mameesh received his B.S. in Business Administration from California State University. He has worked for large corporations and owned small businesses. His current business is Retirement Planning.
 

Oil and Inflation

Saturday, November 10th, 2007

Up is down. The sun rises in the west and sets in the east. The price of oil does not affect inflation.

The price of oil, nearly hit $100 and an all time high, and many economists would have you believe that it doesn’t matter. Our economy has changed, the price of oil doesn’t affect us as much and besides, nothings happened so far? Right?

This line of reasoning coming from many “respected” economists, and oil traders, is nothing more than economic laziness and stupidity.

Our economy has changed. We have become a service economy instead of a manufacturing economy, and therefore the impact of rising oil prices on the cost of production, is much less than it used to be. That’s the good news? No, that’s the bad news.

It means that we have replaced, higher paying manufacturing jobs, with lower paying service jobs. It means that the average American worker is earning less than his father did. It means that our trade defecit grows and our currency declines. It means the end of our economic superpower status.

High, and more importantly, rising oil prices is still inflationary. Besides gasoline at the pump, every single thing you purchase, involves oil in some way. When the price of oil rises, the cost of production and transportation, of that item rises as well.

But nothings happened so far? That’s right, “nothing” that you “see” besides rising gasoline prices, has happened so far. But a lot, that you don’t “see” is happening, and a lot more that you are going to “feel” will happen.

So far, rising oil prices, they were $20 a barrel at the beginning of the Bush administration, have in combination with the spending for the war in Iraq and the tax cuts for the rich, resulted in the devaluation of the dollar and modest interest rate hikes.

Because we outsourced our manufacturing to China and other low wage countries, the cost of production dramatically declined, our CEO’s became very wealthy pocketing the difference between your wage and that of the Chinese laborer. In return you got cheap products, which kept inflation down, and helped mask your lower wage.

Oil prices began rising, the cost of production even with lower wages began to rise, but U.S. corporate earnings remained strong and inflation low. Why? The Chinese and other manufacturers, could absorb the rising costs of production, because of increasing demand (volume)  and by keeping wages low.

Where was this increasing demand coming from? You and your house. At the same time that oil prices were rising, the U.S. housing market was booming, and Americans were spending their home’s equity. The increasing demand, in combination with low wage manufacturing, was reducing the effect of oil on inflation.

But the housing market is declining? Exactly. The party is over. Now comes the hangover. The smart money has already left the country for euros and gold.

You are going to lose your jobs. As demand slows, the Chinese manufacturers who have been maintaining profits from shrinking margins (due to higher oil prices) but increased volume, are going to get hurt. When they pass the pain onto the U.S. corporations, the corporations are going to pass part of the cost onto you, and take lower earnings.

When the CEO’s bonus and job is tied to corporate earnings, they will try to maintain earnings, by cutting costs. When they cut costs - they cut your job.

Economics has not changed. Your house, and low Chinese wages, fueled the Chinese and U.S. economies, and only delayed the effect of oil on inflation.

The U.S. and Chinese economies are going to go through a very hard period until the price of oil begins to decline.

Black Monday

Sunday, November 4th, 2007

Is tomorrow, November 5, 2007, the day the stock market finally collapses? As I write this on a beautiful Sunday morning in Northern California, Citigroup is holding an emergency board meeting, to plan the resignation of their CEO, and most probably to sort through the collateral damage of their collateral debt obligations.

Citigroup couldn’t wait until Monday, to send out a press release, announcing that their Prince of a CEO was going to spend more time with his family? I haven’t been this nervous since August of ‘07, when the stock market should have collapsed, and the economy nearly disintegrated.

The reason why the U.S. economy did not implode back in August, was due to massive (and continuing) infusions of capital from the Federal Reserve, European Central Banks, Arab and Chinese governments, and Fed rate cuts.

All the grand intervention did, was buy time, and with Citigroup’s announcement of an emergency board meeting, it appears that time may be up.  This is an extraordinary event, in a time of great uncertainty, one that may not register on main street, but can send shock waves through Wall Street.

And it appears that Americans, with their seven second attention spans, are incapable of learning from history, and that we might as well stop teaching economics in our universities.

Citibank helped bring about the stock market crash of 1929. It was Charles Mitchell, CEO of National City Bank (later re-named Citibank), that opened the speculation door to individual investors. The crash of 1929 didn’t happen in one day.

In the stock market crash of 1929, their was an initial drop on “Black Thursday”, Citibank and other large Wall Street investors poured money into the stock market, to try and restore confidence. Five days later, on “Black Thursday”, the stock market collapsed.

Are we watching a bad Hollywood sequel, of a horror film, that first ran almost a century ago? I don’t know? But let’s ask none other than, Chairman of Citigroup William Rhodes, who stated back in March to the Financial Times “What is clear to me is that in the next year a material correction in the markets will occur.” From The Economist Blog titled “Citibank warns of crash. But why?”

That’s the history - here’s the economics.

Economic cycles dictate that their will be stock market crashes and recessions. Whether they are short-term and soft, or long-term and hard (i.e. Depression), depend on the nature of the response. We have already seen, since August of 2007, swift and massive intervention to keep the economy going.

The question is how many more interventions are possible before time and capital runs out?

China’s goose is cooked - and dim sum!

Wednesday, September 5th, 2007

The world is focused on the U.S. economy, and worried about our housing crisis, the credit crisis, and the stock market crisis. While no one is paying attention to the China crisis.

The China crisis? The conventional wisdom, is that China has been supporting the U.S. economy and our wars, through the purchase of our government (and it appears sub-prime as well) debt. That without China’s continued support, the U.S. economy will collapse, and in essence China controls the U.S. economy and our foreign policy.

Hah! China’s goose is cooked - and dim sum! Who made China what it is today, an economic juggernaut, producing lead toys and poisoned dog food? You did. The American people.

And when you stop buying Chinese goods, because the U.S. economy collapses and you lose your jobs, who gets hurt? That’s right - China.

That’s why a Chinese bank recently invested billions of dollars, into Bear Stearns, the folks who brought you the hedge fund mess. It’s why China has poured many billions more into our bond market. China can’t afford the United States to collapse.

If you lose your job, how many Chinese lose theirs, think about it?

If you think there was tremendous housing speculation in San Francisco, check out the real estate in Shanghai, China’s economy is over inflated.

Where did much of the money from our housing boom go? China. Who bought much of our government and corporate debt? China. Who owns the title to a worthless U.S. economy? China. Shall I go on? Yeah, I think I shall.

The reason the U.S. economy is worthless, is because its foundation has completely eroded, the slightest financial tremble can collapse the entire structure. Witness how, a relatively minor problem in sub-prime mortgages, caused the credit market to close. The world, and the smart money knows this, it’s why the Euro has taken off the last few years. No one, besides our deluded selves, has confidence in the U.S economy.

The foundation of the U.S. economy (any industrial economy for that matter) is built on four cornerstones, Resources, Manufacturing, Technology, Education. We have depleted our resources, out-sourced our manufacturing, given away our technology, and our education is sub-par. There is nothing left to support the U.S. economy. Now back to China…

China’s economy has been growing for some time now. It all started when U.S. corporations, sold out the American middle class, and moved their manufacturing to China. The Chinese left their farms, moved to the cities, and began working in factories.

The Chinese economy grew, our C.E.O’s got rich, the American middle class got screwed. But wait, it’s the American middle class who buys all the lead toys and poisoned dog food, Wall Street we’ve got a problem! Problem? What Problem? There’s a solution to shrinking middle class incomes.

Your house is an interest free credit card! Great news, you can borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars, and buy all the lead toys your heart desires.

The relaxation of credit standards in the U.S., and the subsequent housing boom, led to astronomical growth rates in the Chinese economy. Tremendous profits for our C.E.O.’s. But, you know, eventually all good things must come to an end.

All that growth, and high energy prices, is very inflationary. Plus, throw in massive government borrowing, to support a losing and illegal war, and you get higher interest rates. Which leads to higher house payments, which leads to a housing crisis, and well you know the rest of the story.

China is faced with a dilemna. Allow the U.S. economy to collapse, and go down with us, or bail us out by pouring money into our stock and bond markets, and give up their surplus. It’s really that simple. Either way, China get’s hurt, that’s the China crisis.

Most probably, China will choose the middle road, keeping our economy on life support, while their economy cools. For China it’s probably a good thing. Hyper economic growth, is un-manageable, corrupting, and causes tremendous social changes. Meanwhile, China can work on developing trade with Russia, Central Asia, and other developing countries, to replace its dependence on the U.S. economy.

In the meantime China won’t allow the United States economy to collapse, in the meantime we can figure out how to rebuild our economy, in the meantime we can stop lying to ourselves.

The Magic Show

Monday, August 27th, 2007

The Wall Street theatre is filled to capacity tonight. Bankers in tuxedos and men in overalls, share the auditorum, and respond to the act they are witnessing with the same sense of awe. Roars of astonished approval and clapping repeatedly echo through out the hall. As this evenings show has lived up to its billing.

The poster hung by the entrance, features two well dressed and serious looking men, and promises everyone “The Most Amazing Show on Earth”. Mr. Greenspan and his young assistant, will perform “Feats of Financial Folly”, watch as entire economies dissappear before your very eyes. Open to the public - everyone welcome. Price of admission - your life savings.

Join us now as we enter the theatre to watch the final act of this most incredible act. The audience has seen some amazing things already, and sensing the climax are all hushed, as the amazing Mr. Greenspan addresses the audience.

“Ladies and gentlemen, you have seen how our volunteer from the audience, and everyone let’s give Mr. America a round of applause, gave us one dollar. Which he kindly removed from his wallet at the begginning of the show.” Everyone politely claps for Mr. America.

The Amazing Greenspan continues, “And you all saw how my trusted assistant Mr. Bernanke, please everyone if you don’t mind, a show of appreciation to the efforts of Mr. Bernanke, took Mr. Americas dollar and placed it into this solid box.” The audience murmurs and nods. Another volunteer, a man who appeared to be a banker by trade, had been summoned from the audience to examine the box, and had declared it to be solid and empty.

“And ladies and gentlemen, you witnessed did you not, how with a few magic spells, when the box was re-opened, Mr. America’s one dollar bill had magically turned into a one hundred dollar bill?” Mr. Greenspan, ever the show man, loudly exclaims to the incredulous audience as they cheer and hoot their approval. Mr. Bernanke beams on the sideline and dreams of one day being as skilled a performer as the old master.

Mr. Greenspan quiets the crowd and lowers his voice solemnly. “Now I shall perform the grand finale of the evening. Mr. America if you would be so kind as to allow me your services for one final trick?” Mr. America steps back onto the stage, flushed with excitement, the one hundred dollar bill remains in the box.

“Mr. Bernanke, if you would please bring over the magic box, and Mr. America if you would kindly open your hand.” The Amazing Greenspan proceeds to lift open the box and removes the one hundred dollar bill. Taking the one hundred dollar bill between the fingers of his two hands, the Amazing Greenspan holds the bill up in the air, and allows the audience plenty of time to appreciate the reality of the note.

“Now Mr. America,” the Amazing Greespan says rather heavily as he tries to get the attention of his volunteer. Mr. America, his eyes fixated on the one hundred dollar bill, imagines all the things he can buy with the money, and deafly nods in agreement. “This is a one hundred dollar bill, is it not?” asks the magician. “Uh-uh.” Comes the reply. Not a very intelligent response, but understandable, given the circumstances.

“I am going to place this one hundred dollar bill into your hand, if you could please turn and face the audience so everyone can see me place the one hundred bill into your open hand, excellent, excellent, right there, both hands open and level if you please, perfect Mr. America.” As Mr. America faces the audience, his sweaty trembling hand opened and empty, Mr. Greenspan neatly folds the one hundred dollar bill in order to fit it snuggly into his palm. Sensing the impatience of the audience, the amazing Greenspan quickly places the bill into Mr. America’s hand, and instructs him to close it tightly.

“Mr. America, can you feel the one hundred dollar bill in your hand?” He asks a visibly excited volunteer. “Yes, yes, I can!” A smiling Mr. Greenspan produces a cane and waves it over the hand holding the note. “I am now going to recite a short magical statement.” Squinting very hard, and holding the cane over Mr. America’s trembling hand, the financial sorcerer casts his spell. “Economy fluxo, liquidity transparente, inflation alto digitatus, recession imminente!” His words echo through the room, no one in attendance quite understands their meaning, its a language known only to the wise one. With a moment of silence for added effect, the distinguished crowd edges up on their seats, and crane their necks for a better view.

“Would you please open your hand Mr. America.” Instructs the Amazing Greenspan. Hesitating for only a moment, not sure what to expect, Mr. America does as he is told. An audible gasp engulfs the room, Mr. America looks down at his hand. “But, but, it’s gone.” Mr. America semi-coherently begins mumbling. And as rehearsed, the Amazing Greenspan’s assistant Bernanke rushes forward, beside a befuddled Mr. America, and gestures toward the master. “Ladies and gentlemen - the Amazing Greenspan!”

The audience is stunned, they have never seen a trick such as this, this is indeed magic! Not wanting to appear fools, they rise from their seats and cheer wildly, as the Amazing Greenspan takes a slow bow. The curtain begins to descend, lights begin to illuminate the hall, and Mr. Greenspan rises from his bow. Mr. America has not moved, not even a twitch, still mumbling incoherently, “but, but, I had the hundred dollars in my hands.”

Mr. Greenspan places his hand into the open and empty hand of Mr. America, and thanks him for his participation, as he gives it a quick shake. Meanwhile Mr. Bernanke thanks the crowd, “Thank you ladies and gentlemen, thank you, be sure to catch us next month when we appear in Shanghai, tickets are still available. Drive safely. Goodnight.”

The Amazing Greenspan has already stepped behind the curtain. As Mr. Bernanke, before making his way to join the master, leads Mr. America to the edge of the stage and likewise thanks him for volunteering. The crowd collects their coats and purses, checking the seats for any coins that may have fallen from their pockets, and a confused and shaken Mr. America makes his way back to his seat. Mrs. America, is already standing in the aisle when Mr. America arrives, their belongings neatly gathered in her arms. “It was their, right their in my hands, the hundred dollar bill?” He says to his wife while gesturing at his empty palm. “Yes, dear, should we be going now?” Responds Mrs. America.

Mr. and Mrs. America join the crowd exiting the theatre. As they leave and make their way towards the subway, members of the audience, can be heard exclaiming “One hundred dollars disappearing from a mans hand! Incredible, just incredible, never seen anything like it!” Others, recognizing Mr. America, give him a hearty pat on the back and congratulate him for a “Job well done.”

As they head down the subway stairs and toward the turnstiles, Mrs. America turns to Mr. America and asks, “Honey, where’s our dollar bill?”

Globalization and the Internet

Tuesday, August 21st, 2007

Globalization is neither good nor evil. Globalization, like any creation of man, can be used for either purpose. Dynamite can blow a hole through a mountain, and connect two valleys, or it can be used to destroy villages. Nuclear energy can provide electricity, powering a nation, or it can be used to kill entire populations. A match can be used to light a fire, that cooks our food and heats our house, or it can be used to burn down the house.

Globalization as an economic force can similarly be used, to open markets and create employment opportunities, for people and their products. And Globalization can also be used, to force people from their land, and create slave labor factories. Sadly, we see more of the former rather than the latter, in the world today.

Likewise the Internet, a new form of globalized communication, is neither good nor evil. It can be used to share music, art, and ideas, that benefit all of mankind. And it can also be used to spread messages of hate, to spy on our fellow man, and rob us from the far reaches of the planet.

The question and the challenge before us today, is not whether globalization and the internet is good or evil, Or whether it should even exist. Exist it does and we shall decide how to use it. Inherent in the negative power of Globalization and the internet, to destroy our civilization, lies the positive power to create a better world. Do you recognize the power and are you up to the challenge? One laptop, one man, the power to change the world.